Not the time to build capital ships

I wanted to launch a new super batch of about 18 capitals. It’s been a while since the production lines ran at full capacity, and it felt like the right time to restart the manufacturing engine.

So I did what I always do before committing a few dozen billion ISK: I opened the spreadsheet and crunched the numbers. And at the very bottom of the table, where the final profit should be, I found something worthless. My first thought was that I had made a mistake somewhere, I checked everything twice, but unfortunately there was no mistake. The in-game contracts confirm it.

The Market Today

Capital prices have collapsed across the board:

• Some Naglfars are listed below 2 billion ISK.
• Revelations are around 2.2 billion ISK.
• An industrialist I follow is ready to accept orders at 1.9 billion ISK for all the carriers.

When a competitor is willing to deliver at that level, the market has already decided where the floor is. At these prices my margin disappears once I count the hull costs, the reactions, the logistics and the time the slots stay locked for two weeks. It is simply not a good time to invest in capital manufacturing.

What Happened?

I honestly don’t know when this started, because I haven’t followed the market closely for many weeks. That is on me, and it’s a good reminder that an industrialist who stops watching the market is flying blind.

 

When I opened the latest MER, the graphs told the story. There is a sharp drop in the ship price indices starting in July. The Mineral Price Index kept falling. The Module Price Index fell by approximately 4% compared with August, which is not dramatic, but it is relevant to me because modules are the other half of my business.

Why Not Build Anyway?

I thought about building anyway and waiting for prices to recover. I’m not doing that. Capitals are slow movers, and the market doesn’t absorb volume quickly even in good times. Locking billions into hulls that I would have to sell at a loss, or hold for months, goes against my rule of keeping a healthy liquid buffer. I’d rather keep the ISK ready than turn it into inventory nobody wants at a fair price.

Next Steps

I’m writing this post minutes before bedtime, so I can’t go deeper tonight. Tomorrow I will look carefully at what is happening on the module side. I have a few Excel sheets that need updating before I can get a full view of the situation, and I want to know whether the module drop is a small correction or the beginning of a wider trend, since T2 modules are my steady source of income.

For now the super batch is on hold. I’ll report back once the sheets are updated.